1.0 Problem definition:
There is a need
to boost production by investing in additional equipment for a cassava
processing plant. The period of functionality is 5years. Increased productivity
will amounts to NGN500, 000 in revenue per annum after deduction of operating
cost. A 5KVA power output is ideal for this extra energy requirement.
2.0 Development of feasible alternative:
The feasible alternatives to achieving desired objective of
qualitative products can be obtained considering the following alternatives:
- Purchase of a solar panel( roof-mounted) for effective power generation
- Purchases of an engine driven generating set to supply power to the equipment over the given period.
The solar panel
is assumed to have zero market value at the end of year 5. The generating set
has a depreciation value calculated using straight line method of classical
depreciation with a salvage value of NGN 500,000 over cost price of NGN2,
000,000(for 18kva capacity).
Following
parameter applies:
Dk = (B-SVN)/N- Eqn. 1
Dk*
= k. Dk for 1≦k≦N Eqn. 2
BVk =
B- Dk* Eqn. 3
For the
generating set: B=2,000,000, 000, SV=
500,000, N=5years.
Substituting into
equation 1, 2 and 3 above give numerical value populated in a spreadsheet
below.
EOY,k
|
dk(NGN)
|
BVK (NGN)
|
0
|
-
|
2,000,000
|
1
|
900,000
|
1,700,000
|
2
|
900,000
|
900,000
|
3
|
900,000
|
1,400,000
|
4
|
900,000
|
800,000
|
5
|
900,000
|
500,000
|
3.0 Develop the outcome for each alternative:
The two scenarios
will be subjected to numerical analysis using Present worth (PW) of the
equipment to justify economic benefits of the investment. The Minimum
attractive rate on investment (MARR) is 20% per year. The PW Decision rules
suffices if PW (i=MARR) ≧0.
Using information
in the figure above,
PW= PW of cash
flows-PW of cash outflows
PW (20%) = 620,000(P/A, 20%, 5) + 100,000(P/F,
20%, 5)-2,000,000
= 55,122 NGN
Where P/A= 2.9906
and P/F= 0.4019 from appendix C for discrete table of values.
Calculating for
solar panel (alternative 2),
For our 5-KW solar energy system costing $45,000(NGN 7,020,000),
a useful life of 20years and salvage value of 1,755,000NGN at the end of year 5:
PW= PW of cash
flows-PW of cash outflows
PW (20%) = 620,000(P/A, 20%, 5) + 1,755,000(P/F,
20%, 5)-7,020,000 < 0 (-446049)
This signifies
the solar panel is not economically justified.
4.0 Selection of acceptable Criteria:
Acceptable criteria will be based on justification on which
of the two alternatives brings appreciable returns on investment in terms of economical
justification. The Minimum attractive rate of return (MARR) of 20% is to be
maintained based on consideration and company policy.
5.0 Analysis and Comparison of alternatives:
Item 3 above clearly indicate alternative 1 is of significant
benefit in terms of PW value greater than 0.
6.0 Selection of preferred alternative:
The most preferred alternative is to procure an 18KVA (less
phase factor) generator set for the extra power requirement.
7.0 Performance Monitoring & Post Evaluation of
result:
Continual monitoring measures to be put in place to evaluate
relationship between FW/PW, AW and equivalent capital recovery.
References:
Sullivan, W. G., Wicks, E.M., & Koelling, C.P. (2012). Engineering Economy (15th ed.) (pp
201-210) New Jersey, NJ. Pearson Higher Education, Inc.
Purdue OWL APA style.
(2011). APA formatting and style guide. Retrieved from http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/560/19/
Green Econometrics (2007): Understanding the
Cost of Solar Energy. Retrieved from http://greenecon.net/understanding-the-cost-of-solar-energy/energy_economics.html
Ibraheem, you have picked an AWESOME case study (and one I have some first hand experience with) and although you set the problem up correctly, I am questioning your analysis.
ReplyDeleteFirst, why did you reference Chapter 5,which is a single project, when what you are really doing is comparing between two alternatives? (Chapter 6)
I am going to accept this posting as being OK for Chapter 5 but I would like you do to it again but this time, I'd like to see your cash flow diagram for the solar panels and then apply the tools/techniques from Chapter 6 rather than Chapter 5.
Another concern is you didn't account for the OPERATING and MAINTENANCE costs of the Generator vs the O & M expense of the Solar Panels?
Usually when making this kind of comparison, the initial costs of solar is almost always HIGHER than conventional generators, but once installed, the operating and maintenance costs are usually negligible compared to the gen set.
Here as some additional references for you to look at before you publish an updated version.
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdf
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2006-06-16/energy-payback-roof-mounted-photovoltaic-cells
http://energybible.com/solar_energy/calculating_payback.html
Bottom line- you have picked a really GREAT case study but I think you can do a lot more with this if you look at Chapter 6 in Engineering Economy than Chapter 5.
Depending on the tax laws in Nigeria (are there any incentives or tax advantages of using Solar?) you may be able to use this same case study for another blog posting which will cover Chapter 7?
Keep up the good work, Ibraheem but you really need to catch up to at least W6. Let's try to get two more blog postings done this week?
BR,
Dr. PDG, Jakarta