Monday, December 10, 2012

W5_Doyin_Benchmarking the best Alternatives in Incentive Contracting against a baseline.




W5_Doyin_Benchmarking the best Alternatives in Incentive Contracting against a baseline.
1.       Problem Recognition, Definition and Evaluation:
       This is to choose the best three alternatives in Incentive Contracting and benchmarking them against a baseline EPCC (Engineering, Procurement, Construct and Commission) a contract type used in the oil and Gas Industry.

2.       Development of Feasible Alternatives: From Week 4 blog the top three alternatives
·         Cost-plus-incentive-fee contracts (C+I)
·         Cost-plus-award-fee contracts (C+A)
·         Cost/Time plus Incentive/Disincentive (A+B)
      Adding
      . Lane Rental Approach (LRA)
      . Pure Incentive/ Disincentive (PI/D)
      . Indefinite Time/ Indefinite Quantity (IT/IQ)
3.       Development of the outcomes and cash flows for each alternative: These alternatives will be      considered based on the following attributes
·         Scope Definition: 
·         Risk
·         Cost
·         Time
·         Technical Performance
·         Contract Improvement
·         Gains
·         Loss


4.       Selection of Criteria
Table 1. Alternatives
Attribute
C+I
C+A
A+B
LRA
PI/D
IT/IQ
Scope Definition
Very Good
Poor
Excellent
Good
Good
Poor
Risk Exposure
Significant
Minimal
Minimal
Significant
Significant
Average
Cost
Satisfactory Reduction
Increment
Stable
Increment
Satisfactory
Reduction
Save 15% of Actual Cost
Time
20% reduction
10% reduction
32% reduction
5% reduction
15% Reduction
40% Reduction
Technical Performance
High
Low
Very  High
Low
High
Low
Contract Improvement
Significant
Insignificant
Significant
Significant
Fair
Significant
Gains
5%
5%
50%
10%
5%
10%
Losses
2%
3%
0%
2%
3%
0%
The most important attribute is Time and Cost reduction which is the bane of Project Management.

5.       Analysis and comparison of the alternatives: This is done by using the non-compensatory model called Disjunctive Resolution (which is the model employed earlier for all other alternative methods) to evaluate each alternative on the best value achieved for any attribute.

Table 2- Feasible Range.
Attribute
Minimum
Maximum
Scope Definition
50%
100%
Risk Exposure
1%
5%
Cost
10%Reduction
20% Reduction
Time
10% Reduction
40% Reduction
Gains
10%
Unlimited
Losses
0
10% 0f Profit
Technical Performance
5%
10%
Contract Improvement
2%
7%

Comparing table 1 with the acceptable Standard, Cost Time plus (A+B) and Indefinite Time/ Indefinite Quantity (IT/IQ) are the two most feasible alternatives.
The Additive Weighty Technique of Compensatory model is also being used for this analysis in 
Table 3 - Additive Weighty Technique
Attribute
Step 1
Step2:
(B)
C+I
C+A
A+B
LR
PI/D
IT/IQ
Relative Ranking
Normalized Weight (A)
Scope Definition
6
6/36=0.17
0.5
0.085
0
0.085
0.043
0.043
0
Risk Exposure
1
1/36=0.03
1
0.03
0
0
0.03
0.03
0.01
Cost
7
7/36=0.19
0.75
0.143
0.38
0.048
0.38
0.143
0.19
Time
8
8/36=0.22
0.43
0.095
0.031
0.17
0
0.064
0.22
Technical Performance
5
5/36=0.14
0.4
0.056
0
0.14
0
0.056
0
Contract Improvement
4
4/36=0.11
1
0.11
0
0.11
0.11
0.044
0.11
Gains
3
3/36=0.08
0
0
0
0.08
0.008
0
0.008
Losses
2
2/36=0.06
60%
0.036
0.06
0
0.036
0.06
0.06
Sum
36
1

0.555
2nd choice
0.471
0.633
Best Choice
0.607
0.481
3rd Choice
0.598


                                                                                                                          
6.       Selection of the preferred alternative
The best Alternatives are
·         Cost /Time Method (A+B)
·         Lane Rental
·         Indefinite Quantity/Indefinite Time
In my studies and Analysis, LA are usually for Project that includes Lane rental in the bidding eg road construction that is its application is limited.
IT/IQ ‘s application is limited to  small projects like maintenance etc.
Therefore they will not be applicable in EPCC Projects. The applicable Alternatives are
1.       A+B
2.       C+I
3.       PI/D 

7.       Performance Monitoring.
·          Time of Completion against the Scheduled time
·         Actual Project cost against the Budgeted Project Cost.

8.       References
1. Sullivan,W.G, Wicks,E.M, & Koelling, C.P (2012). Engineering Economy (15th edition.)(Chapter 14) New Jersey, NJ. Pearson Higher Education, Inc.

2. Giammalvo, P.D (2012, October 22). Integrated portfolio (asset), program (operations) and project management methodology course (Power Point slides) (An AACE methodology course). Day 5 (pp 73-91) Lagos.  Nigeria.

3. Ellis R, Pyeon J, Herbsman Z, Minchin E, Molenaar K.(July 2007)Evaluation of Alternate Contracting Techniques on FDOT Construction Projects . Retrieved from: http://www.dot.state.fl.us/researchcenter/Completed_Proj/Summary_CN/FDOT_BDC51_rpt.pdf

4. The Gordian Group (2009) making facility owners more successful .Retrieved from:  http://www.jobordercontract.com/why-joc.php?id=57.


1 comment:

  1. AWESOME again, Doyin!!! Wow!!! I can't wait to see your paper!!!

    Your citations were also spot on, so it looks like you are in great shape there as well.

    Keep up the good work but with the holidays fast approaching, I really would like to see you get in at least one more blog posting this week....

    You are taking a big risk working against the late dates rather than trying to stay in between the early and late date curve. (One week behind schedule is fine, but you are now two weeks behind schedule, meaning you have ZERO float....

    Give the risk management aspects some thought....

    BR,
    Dr. PDG, Jakarta

    ReplyDelete