Friday, December 28, 2012

W5_IBRAHEEM_PREFERRED SAVING PLAN


1.0 Problem definition:  Preferred saving plan.
Home ownership is an important achievement for every family. A salary earner in the civil service with a monthly salary of NGN 350,000 per annum intends to establish a saving plan towards home ownership estimated at NGN3, 000,000 of today money.

2.0 Development of feasible alternative:
15years to retirement and considering the following alternatives:

  1. Saving plan over 14years, 25% of salary after tax with 8% interest rate per annum on deposit
  2. Saving plan over 10years, 35% of salary after tax with 13% interest rate per annum on deposit
The two alternatives will be scrutinized and real value of dollar at the end of period of analysis will be ascertained. Justification will be made on which savings plan best suit the objective based on CPI (Using Nigeria as a case study)
Following parameter can be deduced from chart below as it applies to Nigerian economy:

Fig 1.0
  
Consumer price index= (Index) k - (Index) k-1      Eqn. 1
{(CPI) 2012-(CPI) 2011}/ (CPI) 2011. Substituting figures from fig 1.0 above
(12.3-11.8)/ 11.8 = 8.47%

3.0 Develop the outcome for each alternative:
The two scenarios will be subjected to numerical analysis using spreadsheet method.

Alternative 1


Alternative 2

4.0 Selection of acceptable Criteria:
Acceptable criteria will be based on justification on which of the two alternatives brings appreciable reduction in amount of years and excess money absorbed in the economy due to inflation over prolonged period of time.

5.0 Analysis and Comparison of alternatives:
Subtracting value of actual dollars in the two scenarios i.e. NGN 9,363,533- NGN 6, 767,338= NGN2, 602,595. This indicated a monetary value loss to inflation over extra 4years on alternative 1.

6.0 Selection of preferred alternative:
The most preferred alternative is alternative 2. It may impose a present financial constraint but beneficial on the long run as a reduction on effect of inflation on savings.

7.0 Performance Monitoring & Post Evaluation of result:
Continual monitoring measures to be put in place to evaluate effect of rise and fall of inflation based on consumer performance index as year unfolds.

References:
Sullivan, W. G., Wicks, E.M., & Koelling, C.P. (2012). Engineering Economy (15th ed.) (pp 366-382) New Jersey, NJ. Pearson Higher Education, Inc.
  
Purdue OWL APA style. (2011). APA formatting and style guide. Retrieved from http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/560/19/

Trading Economic (2012): Nigeria Inflation Rate. Retrieved from http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/inflation-cpi

1 comment:

  1. AWESOME case stuy, Ibraheem and you followed our step by step process very accurately.

    One challenge I have for you. If you go to this website, http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts you can see that governments (not just US but ALL governments) lie or manipulate the CPI.

    What I would challenge you to do for a follow on blog posting would be to compare the "real" inflation rate in the US against the "offical" or published rate by the US government. Then apply that same factor to the Nigerian Government's CPI numbers. Based on your experience at the grocery store, which set of numbers is most correct? The official or the "adjusted"?

    Then REDO this same analysis, but this time, instead of using the official numbers, use the "real" numbers

    HINT: Before doing this, be sure to read over and understand Chapter 8 in Engineering Economy. Come the time to take your CCC/E, CEP or DRMP, you will thank me for pushing you to do this assignment!!

    BR,
    Dr. PDG, Jakarta

    ReplyDelete