Monday, November 5, 2012

W2_Rotimi Ojo_Funding of Child’s Overseas University Education


W2_Rotimi Ojo_Funding of Child’s Overseas University Education

1.    Problem Definition
Determination of how much to put in a savings account paying 6% per annum to finance child’s overseas university education in 12 years time

It is estimated that $13,000 will be required per annum to cover university and other expenses in 12 year time.

Using Time Value of Money Concept and Table C-9{1} to and deferred annuity concept to estimate amount required just before University education begins
Cash Flow Diagram                                                              A=$13,000.00







P = A (P/A, 6%, 4)

Where P = Present Value at 11th Year
(P/A, 6%, 4) = Compound Amount Factor from Table C-9 =3.4651

P = 13,000 * 3.4651 = $45,046.30

The result shows that we should have an estimated $45,000.00 to fund my child’s University education a year before he starts university.

2.    Feasible Alternatives
The means available to raise the required funds are
a.    Start investing in an annuity that pays interest at 6% per annum
b.    Find a fixed deposit account that would ensure a return of $45,046.30 11 years from now

3.    Development of Outcome and Cash flows for Alternatives
a.    By investing in an annuity that pays interest at 6% for the next 11 years
Amount to be paid into annuity fund yearly:
F = A (F/A, i, N)
Where F= Future Value of Annuity at year 11
                       I= Interest rate @ 6%
           N= No of periods in which interest payments are made
 
From table C-9{1}

P0 = F17 (P/F, i, N) = 45,046.30 * 0.5268 = $2,373.04

I would have to deposit $2,373.04 in this account on the 1st of January, 2013

b.    Invest in Nigerian Treasury bills paying interest at 12.5% per annum
Using the formula P=     F                  =      45,046.30            =$12,317.98
                                    (1 + i)N                               (1.125)11              
The result shows that I would have to buy Nigerian Treasury bills worth $12,317.98 on the 1st of January, 2013 for tenure of 11 years.

4.    Selection Criteria
a)    Risk
b)    Guaranteed returns
c)    Ability to raise initial Capital

5.     Analysis and comparison of alternatives
a)    Alternative A: Investing in annuity, making payments of $2,373.04 per annum for the next 11 years. It carries a higher risk than investing in Government Treasury bills. Returns on investments also bear a level of risk higher than that of the Government’s Treasury bill.
It is relatively easier to come up with $2,373.04 from savings than $12,317.98

b)    Alternative B: Investment in Government Treasury Bills, making a one-off payment of $12,317.98. This option carries a much lower risk and return on investment is almost 100% guaranteed. It is however, a lot more difficult to raise $12,317.98 than to raise $2,373.04
6     Selection of Preferred Alternative
       The preferred alternative is to invest in government treasury bills as it carries a lower risk and returns on investment is more guaranteed. The administrative aspect of the investment is also less cumbersome as it is a one-off event.
       To raise the required amount of $12,317.98, I will apply for an Interest free loan from my company that can be repaid within 18 months (i.e $684.28 monthly payment back to company)
7     Performance Monitoring 
       I shall monitor the performance of my investment by keeping up-to-date with the government’s financial policies and the rate of inflation.
       I will also track the rate of increase in University fees in the United States.



References
Sullivan .G.W, Wicks .E.M &, Koelling C.P (2012), Deferred Annuities Time Value of Money, Engineering Economy (15th Edition)


3 comments:

  1. Great topic for your first unassigned posting, Rotimi, but you could (and should) do much more with it than just this posting!!!

    What I would like to challenge you to do would be to go back a couple of steps and show us how you determined that 12 years from now, it will cost you $13,000 per annum to educate your child's college education? That amount seems WAY WAY too low, at least in America!!!

    Here are a couple of sites with college cost data. http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=76 and http://www.businessinsider.com/tuition-costs-by-country-college-higher-education-2012-6?op=1 and http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveodland/2012/03/24/college-costs-are-soaring/

    My challenge to you for your W3 blog is to take this data and using pages 89-94 in your Engineering Economy, PREDICT what the real cost of education will be in 13 years (2025). Ideally, what I would like to see is not just linear regression but using excel, find the "best fit" model which will give you an R2 value of at least 0.90. (Ask for help if you need it)

    Then, read over Chapter 8 in your engineering economy. What is the REAL inflation rate (Consumer Price Index) in your country? (Keep in mind all countries manipulate this number) http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts. For your W4 blog, what I would like you do to is see if the 6% figure you used is enough to offset the impacts of inflation. (I think you are going to be SHOCKED at what you discover!!) What is the REAL rate you should be using?

    Then for your W5 posting, I would like to see you take this same case study but this time, instead of investing in a bank account which only pays 6%, compare that option against investing in gold or investing in property. Compare those returns against the REAL rate of inflation.

    If you do all that, NOW you will have learned something really useful

    Now the good news is, because you worked smart and not hard, not only can you claim this blog posting for your W2 credit, but you can also take this same blog posting and claim credit for one problem from Chapter 4 of your Engineering Economy!! See how easy that was? One piece of work and you get credit for TWO deliverables!!! And you can do the same for the W3, W4 and W5 blog postings as well.

    Now the only bad news is, while this was a great case study and you have an opportunity to learn a lot from it, how is this helping Lonadek generate a favorable return on their trainng investment in you? What I would urge you to do is pick case studies that will help you become more valuable to Lonadek as a consultant. Doesn't that make more sense in the bigger picture?

    From W6 on, I hope to see you picking work related and not just personal type problems to solve, although this is certainly an acceptable start.

    Keep up the good work, Rotimi and I appreciate and recognize your "leadership by example" by getting your postings done on time. I am sure Mr. Leke and Dr. Lola are watching closely!!

    BR,
    Dr. PDG, Jakarta

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  2. PS Rotimi, there is nothing from stopping you from posting your W3, W4 and W5 blogs early.... I want to drive home the point that using earned value is an INCENTIVE to get contractors to enhance their cash flows by completing work AHEAD of schedule. By you posting in advance of the due date, you can demonstrate how effective this can be.

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  3. PSS: To get an idea of what I am expecting from you for your W3 and W5 posting, look at what Trian has done. http://aacemahakam.blogspot.com/2012/10/w13tri-developing-gold-price-forecast.html.

    Pay special attention to Figures 3 and 4. I will be expecting to see something like that in your postings as well.

    You can do this. If you get stuck, then speak up and ask your colleagues for help.

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