Tuesday, November 20, 2012

W4_Austin_Causes and Effects of project delays and cost overruns


Problem recognition, definition and evaluation
The main reasons for project delays and cost overruns were analyzed and ranked according to different groups and classified on the basis of multi-attributes decision making tools and techniques, as follows;
Deficiency in Planning and scheduling                     (PSD)
Inadequate control procedure                                       (ICP)
Deficiency in cost estimates preparation                  (DCE)
Poor contract management and supervision             (PCM)
Contractors financial difficulties                              (CFD)
Shortage of technical and competent personnel               (STP)
Development of the feasible alternatives
Factors
Effects
PSD
ICP
DCE
PCM
CFD
STP

Cost Overrun

8

7

6

5

4

3

Time Overrun

7

6

5

4

3

4

Variation
Orders

6

5

4

3

2
   
3
Time Extension

5

4

3

2

1

2

Descoping


4

3

4

4

2

1
Development of the outcomes and cash flows for each Technique
Results indicate that the six principal and common causes of delays are: deficiency in planning and scheduling, inadequate control procedure, deficiency in cost estimates preparation, poor contract management and supervision, contractors financial difficulties and shortage of technical and competent personnel, arranged in order of severity;
Factors
Effects
PSD
ICP
DCE
PCM
CFD
STP

Cost Overrun

8

7

6

5

4

3

Time Overrun

7

6

5

4

3

4

Variation
Orders

6

5

4

3

2
   
3
Time Extension

5

4

3

2

1

2

Descoping


4

3

4

4

2

1
Selection of the acceptable criteria
According to the ranking, first rank is awarded to delay due to deficiency in Planning and scheduling. This particular factor is associated with contractors and consultants who are responsible for most of the delays in a project. Inadequate control procedure      was ranked second most important factor. Other factors that could be of interest are deficiency in cost estimates preparation, poor contract management and supervision, contractors financial difficulties and shortage of technical and competent personnel during construction. Hence, the recommended use of LoB and EVM techniques in order to minimize project delays and cost overruns.
Analysis and comparison of the alternatives
Comparison of five priority factors subject to analysis with the LoB and EVM capability improves productivity by 20% and saves money and time, faster planning process and superior visual control, due to its repetitive tasks schedules, where a certain defined delivery schedule of similar item must be maintained chronologically.
Selection of the preferred alternative
These factors were ranked in various groups as shown in above Table. The factors which were declared most influencing factors during the analysis are deficiency in planning and scheduling and inadequate control procedure were awarded highest marks and ranked as first and second respectively. In this way the most influential factors that caused project time and cost overruns were identified.
Performance monitoring and post evaluation of results
Evaluation of the five priority factors resulted in the assessment of the most influential factors to be deficiency in planning and scheduling, and inadequate control procedure were awarded highest marks and ranked as first and second respectively. Hence, the recommended use of LoB and EVM techniques in order to minimize project delays and cost overruns.
References/Bibliography
1.   Firmpong, J. O. and Crawford, L.C. (2003), “Causes of Delays and Cost overrun in construction of building projects in developing countries; Nigeria as a case study.” Retrieved from: http://www.civil.mrt.ac.lk/ICSECM_2011/SEC-11-69.pdf

2.   Van John Wittwer (2003-2012 Vertex42 LLC. All rights reserved).
3.   Mind Tools Ltd, (1996-2012. All rights reserved.)
4.     Gary C. Humphreys. Humphrey and Associates Management Consultants sixth Edition. (2002, 2011. All rights reserved) Chapter 6: Scheduling Methodologies and Scheduling Types:

2 comments:

  1. Good posting, Austin!!

    While you are doing a really great job following our step by step process, I am concerned about the tools/techniques you are using for your scoring model. Where are these values coming from? What I would be much happier to see is if you took a more structured approach, such as using Force Field Analysis, Interrelationship Digraph (both from Memory Jogger 2) or better yet, the tools/techniques from Chapter 14 in Engineering Economy, Multi-attribute Decision Making.

    IF you do not yet have your Engineering Economy and are unable to locate one from past students, there are plenty of online references:

    https://phps.portals.mbs.ac.uk/Portals/49/docs/jyang/XuYang_MSM_WorkingPaperFinal.pdf or http://rene-riedl.at/articles_en/%5BI_9%5D.pdf

    I also have some questions on your research on the leading causes of delays and cost over-runs. Here are some additional references you should be including in your bibliography:

    http://pedago.cegepoutaouais.qc.ca/media/0260309/0378334/SCGC-BON/Documents/TR152-VIDALIS.pdf

    http://journal-archieves16.webs.com/775-780.pdf

    http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/bitstream/123456789/1507/1/faq_online_tool_instructions(1).pdf

    http://penerbit.uthm.edu.my/ojs/index.php/IJSCET/article/viewFile/49/65..

    http://www.civil.mrt.ac.lk/ICSECM_2011/SEC-11-69.pdf

    http://www.efka.utm.my/thesis/IMAGES/3PSM/2010/JSB-3/kangsikweiaa060080d10ttt.pdf

    Bottom line- This is a good posting, but for W5, I would like to see a more complete listing of all the causes of construction cost or time overruns and with it, a more complete analysis or comparison, based on using multi-attribute decision making.

    Also, you need to review your citations. Some you are doing correctly but others not. (i.e. Humphrey, Gary C. Last name first, then first name then middle initial.)

    BR,
    Dr. PDG, Jakarta

    ReplyDelete
  2. PS Austin, catch up with Folakemi. She has a good grasp of the multi-attribute decision making tools (apparently she has been able to obtain a copy of Engineering Economy)

    Work with her and she can help you prepare your W5 posting.

    BR,
    Dr. PDG, Jakarta

    ReplyDelete